With less than two weeks to go until the energy ministers of 24 producing states descend on Vienna for the 30 November Opec meeting, the picture is growing increasingly blurry. Influential monthly reports from the IEA and Opec itself, released this week, offer contrasting pictures of the global supply/demand balance to end-2018. Both the bulls and the bears within the unprecedented grouping of 14 Opec and 10 non-Opec countries can find supporting evidence.
Nevertheless, the industry consensus remains that an extension of existing output restrictions is probable, the question is for how long and how deep. The contrasting IEA and Opec monthly reports underline how finely balanced the oil markets currently are (MEES, 10 November). On the one hand, rebalancing is clearly underway, with OECD stockpiles falling to just under 3bn barrels in September. On the other, recent price gains risk accelerating US production growth, placing a new glut on the market (MEES, 17 November). (CONTINUED - 969 WORDS)
