As has often been the case since the toppling of former leader Muammar al-Qadhafi in 2011, the future of Libya hangs in the balance. A peace settlement signed at Skhirat in Morocco in December 2015 is widely accepted to have failed to achieve its aims. Three months have passed since another UN-sponsored plan was set out: although some progress has been made as yet there are no firm outcomes. The outlook for Libya’s economy, security and political stability rests largely on whether the new UN plan can be more successful than its predecessor, and the nature of the outcomes that it delivers.
In the context of the intensified conflict that developed in Libya with the administrative division of the country in 2014, there have been some notable successes in 2017. The Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation (NOC) has lifted oil production out of the doldrums, surprising many jaded observers. Since the beginning of the year, oil production has increased by almost 50%, averaging close to 1mn b/d in Q4. For 2017 as a whole, output of 820,000 b/d is more than double the figures for 2016 (380,000 b/d) and 2015 (392,000 b/d). (CONTINUED - 1084 WORDS)
