With total crude output of 4.41mn b/d in December (MEES, 12 January), Iraq appears to be pumping close to de facto capacity (leaving aside the 280,000 b/d of Kirkuk capacity shut in as the Baghdad-Kurdistan political dispute has closed off the only viable export route). Of December output 4.1mn b/d comes from areas of the country under Baghdad’s direct control, and 320,000 b/d from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Plans currently under way are slated to add a further 220,000 b/d capacity by end-2018 bringing the federal total to around 4.3mn b/d. Restarting the shut-in Kirkuk output (from the Bai Hassan field and Avana Dome) would take the total to 4.6mn b/d. But the most realistic way in which this could be achieved this year would be for an agreement to be reached with the KRG to export via its independent 700,000 b/d pipeline (MEES, 5 January). (CONTINUED - 1624 WORDS)
