The latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), released 11 September, revises down its forecast for 2019 output by 210,000 b/d versus the forecast published a month earlier. This comes on top of a 90,000 b/d downward revision last month (MEES, 10 August). An acute shortage of takeaway pipeline capacity for output from Texas’ key Permian basin has led to downward revisions totaling 360,000 b/d since May (MEES, 14 September). 2018 output projections have been revised down by 60,000 b/d over the same period.
June, the last month for which ‘final’ figures are available, saw output hit a new record of 10.674mn b/d with provisional figures for August indicating a further leap to 10.90mn b/d. However the start of the ‘hurricane season’ in the Gulf of Mexico sees the EIA forecast a dip to 10.72mn b/d for September. This 180,000 b/d dip is more than accounted for by a forecast fall of 230,000 b/d in Gulf of Mexico output: ‘Lower 48’ onshore output, 85% of which is now accounted for by shale formations, is forecast to keep growing not only in September but every month through to the Dec 2019 end of the STEO forecast period. For June Lower 48 output was 8.57mn b/d, a record 80% of total US crude output. By December 2019 ‘L48’ output is forecast to hit 9.51mn b/d, 86% of total US crude output of 11.89mn b/d (though, again, this is a downward revision – this month’s STEO is the first since April that fails to forecast output topping 12mn b/d by end-2019). (CONTINUED - 496 WORDS)
