Opec monthly production broke to a 14-month high in April as the group’s largest producers ramped up output between the collapse of the old Opec+ deal on 6 March and the start of the new, deeper cuts on 1 May. Production surged by 2.3mn b/d to 30.84mn b/d (see table), but if things go to plan it will be another two years before output can get back to these levels.
The scale of the cuts required for May and June is phenomenal. Opec+ agreed to cut 9.7mn b/d from a baseline primarily set at October 2018 levels (MEES, 17 April), of which 6.1mn b/d is to come from the Opec quotient. This would be tough enough, but last month’s substantial production increases mean that the scale of the cuts required by Opec this month is greater still. MEES calculates that in order to meet its commitments, the group must cut by 7.46mn b/d in May. (CONTINUED - 1015 WORDS)
