Opec appears to have been vindicated over its cautious approach to forecasting the impact of the Ukraine conflict on global oil market supply and demand. Most observers rushed to slash forecasts for near-term Russian oil output in the immediate aftermath of the 24 February invasion (MEES, 18 March), and Opec’s decision to adopt a more wait-and-see approach attracted criticism.
Now, with Q2 production figures available, an assessment of these approaches is possible. The IEA and Opec both have similar assessments for Russian Q2 production in their latest monthly reports – 10.69mn b/d and 10.63mn b/d respectively. In the case of the IEA, the ‘actual’ Q2 Russia output figure is some 2.1mn b/d higher then the 8.6mn b/d forecast it made in the in the weeks following the late-February invasion (MEES, 18 March). (CONTINUED - 1037 WORDS)
