Divergent outlooks on prospects for the global economy in 2024 are fundamental to wildly differing outlooks for oil demand growth from the IEA and Opec. Warning of a “year of subdued global economic growth,” the IEA forecasts a marked slowdown in oil demand growth to 1.24mn b/d this year, while Opec points to “healthy 2.6%” global economic growth and expects another boom year with oil demand surging by 2.25mn b/d.
Despite warning of economic headwinds, the IEA’s latest monthly market report, released 18 January, revises up its global demand growth expectations for this year by 180,000 b/d from the previous month’s report. The key reason provided for the upwards revision is that “the consensus economic outlook has improved somewhat over the last few months in the wake of the recent dovish pivot in central bank policy.” (CONTINUED - 777 WORDS)
