Despite occupying significant bandwidth for the US government, Middle East tensions have taken a backseat to more immediate domestic matters ahead of the 5 November presidential elections. Yet in the region all eyes are on the US, as how the next White House administration approaches Iran over the next four years will have profound repercussions.
A win by former President Donald Trump could see a return to his favored ‘maximum pressure’ doctrine, targeting Iran’s economy, especially its oil exports, with further sanctions. These exports account for some 80% of Tehran’s state revenues, and Mr Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal (MEES, 17 July 2015) saw oil exports nosedive, before beginning to rebound in his last months in office amid lax enforcement. That trend has continued under the Biden administration, with volumes increasing from just 818,000 b/d in 2020 to 1.6mn b/d this year (see chart). Tehran will doubtless hope that if Democrat candidate Kamala Harris wins, she will pursue a similar policy to her predecessor. (CONTINUED - 2364 WORDS)
