The IEA, in its latest Oil Market Report on 11 July, keeps its forecast for global 2024 oil demand growth at just under 1mn b/d whilst doubling down on its bearish outlook. The key reason is a slowdown in Chinese demand, with demand for 2Q 2024 actually slightly lower than the year ago figures. In contrast Opec, in its own monthly report issued the previous day, sticks with its bullish 2.25mn b/d forecast for global 2024 demand growth (MEES, 14 June).
The IEA revises down China demand growth for 2024 to 415,000 b/d, versus 2023’s 1.5mn b/d and last month’s 2024 forecast of 479,000 b/d. With 2023’s exceptional growth attributed in part to post-Covid rebound, the IEA says that “the country’s post-pandemic rebound has run its course” with “consumption growth normalizing in the wake of a stronger 2023 baseline.” However there is also an “intrinsic slowdown, with weakness especially apparent in the petrochemical and industrial fuels,” the IEA notes, whilst cautioning that “it would be premature to conclude that China’s extraordinary petrochemical boom is plateauing.” (CONTINUED - 1003 WORDS)
