Libya’s oil sector instability is back with a vengeance. Output has slumped since eastern officials allied with General Khalifa Haftar on 26 August ordered a halt to Libya’s oil output and exports. Their key demand is that the country’s internationally-recognized government in Tripoli reinstate al-Sadiq al-Kabir as governor of the Central Bank.

Almost all of the country’s output appears to be at risk. Forces loyal to Haftar control all of the ports in the center and east of the country, those on which output from the country’s Sirte Basin oil heartland is dependent (see map). These ports accounted for 74% of Libya’s 1.03mn b/d of crude exports for the first eight months of 2023 (see chart). (CONTINUED - 807 WORDS)