Market fundamentals continue to point to an oversupplied oil market for the year ahead, but a renewed injection of geopolitical uncertainty has driven prices up in the early days of 2025. The inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on 20 January has long loomed as a geopolitical wildcard, as the new administration’s sanctions policies on Russia and Iran will have a significant impact on global supply, but it is the outgoing Biden administration which has tightened the screw on the pair.
The Biden administration in December announced new sanctions on tankers and companies involved in shipping Iranian oil, and early indications showed the new measures having an impact. Chinese imports of Iranian crude slowed that month (MEES, 20 December 2024), resulting in a buildup of floating storage in Southeast Asia. Then on 6 January, Shandong Port Group, which operates the key Qingdao, Rizhao and Yantai ports where almost 50% of Iranian oil is delivered, banned US-sanctioned vessels from calling at its ports (MEES, 10 January). (CONTINUED - 1092 WORDS)
