When US president-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office on 20 January, his new administration will find itself forced to deal with a dramatically changed Middle East. The 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel has led to a series of seismic events, with the ousting of Syria’s Assad regime only the latest, and perhaps not the last (MEES, 13 December). As regional powers seek to shape the new political landscape, it will be hard for the US to stay aloof despite the preference of both Trump and his political base for an isolationist foreign policy.
The first Trump term saw him cultivate close ties with GCC leaderships – especially in Saudi Arabia and the UAE – but they will likely be more wary of his administration this time around. Memories of the lackluster US response to the 2019 Iran-backed attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq facility remain fresh, and Gulf states are increasingly willing to strike independent political stances. (CONTINUED - 2239 WORDS)
