Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC) on 4 September released revenue figures for January-July 2012 as well as projections for the full year “in keeping with the new spirit of transparency and openness”. NOC says it anticipates state revenue of $54.9bn from production taxes and exports of oil, gas and petroleum products during 2012. This is based on average production of 1.35mn b/d and a $100/B oil price. For the first seven months of 2012 Libya produced 302mn barrel of crude, an average of 1.42mn b/d, “5% above the level expected”. For January-July 2012 total hydrocarbon revenues were $30.4bn with average oil prices $110.50/B.
Libya’s oil production hit 1.55mn b/d in May, within touching distance of typical pre-war levels of 1.6mn b/d. But delays to maintenance and continued instability made this unsustainable; output slid to around 1.45mn b/d for June and July. However, production has since edged up again making NOC’s 1.35mn b/d 2012 production forecast estimate appear highly conservative, as is the $100/B price assumption given that average export prices for sweet Libyan crude have only been below this level for one month (June) this year. (CONTINUED - 248 WORDS)
