Opec Doubles Down On Bullish Long Term Oil Outlook

13 Oct 2023 Issue: 66 / 41 By: Jamie Ingram

The world will need much more oil than previously forecast according to Opec’s latest long-term outlook, and for much longer. Economic growth in emerging economies means more energy from all sources is required, while some developed countries are watering down net zero strategies, putting the onus on oil producers to decarbonize where possible, says the group.

Opec has shocked many in the energy industry with key forecasts within its newly published flagship World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2023. The group has turbocharged its oil demand outlook, revising up its 2045 forecast by a massive 6mn b/d to 116mn b/d in the WOO’s reference case.

Needless to say, this is in marked contrast to what the IEA will reveal in its upcoming World Energy Outlook (WEO) when it is published on 24 October. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol last month said the report will show demand for all fossil fuels falling before 2030 (MEES, 15 September). But Opec’s outlook is also a swift turnaround from just three years ago, when the WOO forecast global oil demand peaking between 2040 and 2045 at just over 109mn b/d (MEES, 9 October 2020). (CONTINUED - 1746 WORDS)