As 2024 draws to a close, oil markets are already trading 2025 barrels, with Gulf producers having set OSPs for January and allocated term volumes. Yet prominent market outlooks still remain wildly divergent on supply/demand balances for 2024, let alone next year.

Amid this uncertainty, Opec+ producers opted for caution during last week’s ministerial meeting, extending 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts in full through Q1, and slowing the rate at which barrels will eventually return (MEES, 6 December). Q1 is typically the low-demand season, and the move is calibrated to prevent an inventory build before demand strengthens from Q2. (CONTINUED - 892 WORDS)