The oil market is struggling to find its bearings as concerns mount over the impact of escalating trade tensions on the global economy and uncertainty on whether US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran will result in removing sizeable near-term supply. This year’s global economic outlook is set to be dominated by White House policy, and President Donald Trump’s impulsiveness (MEES, 28 February), as seen in his recent on/off tariff announcements, will only add volatility amidst expectations of lower oil demand growth and higher supply.
This unpredictable economic landscape was the focus of the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report published on 13 March, with the Paris-based agency stating that the “macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the United States and several other countries.” While it highlighted underwhelming recent demand data, the IEA only marginally revised down its 2025 demand growth expectations, its global oil demand growth forecast remains just above 1mn b/d, up from 830,000 b/d for 2024 (see table). (CONTINUED - 903 WORDS)
