All eyes will be on Muscat on 12 April, when senior US and Iranian officials will hold talks over a potential new nuclear deal. The US will be represented by Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, with Iran sending Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. There is uncertainty over whether or not the talks will be direct – US President Donald Trump says yes, Iran insists it will be indirect – but either way, this is a pivotal moment.
If the talks go well, regional geopolitical tensions stand to ease and oil markets will begin to price in the potential for increased Iranian oil production and exports. Go badly and expectations of additional US sanctions will increase, while a worst case scenario would see the narrative shift towards concerns of Israeli military strikes against Iran. (CONTINUED - 310 WORDS)